Arcane Research: Lightning Network will exceed 700 million users by

Arcane Research: Lightning Network will exceed 700 million users by

By 2030 the number of active users of Bitcoin's Lightning Network (LN) micropayments network could exceed 700 million, analysts at Arcane Research came to these conclusions.

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Analysts noted that common metrics like bandwidth do not reflect the true scale of the network's growth.

In September, El Salvador legalised bitcoin, P2P platform Paxful integrated LN, and Twitter allowed content creators to accept digital gold donations. Since then, payment volume on the Lightning Network has almost doubled, although channel capacity has only increased by 26%, experts have pointed out.

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Payment volume growth in LN compared to the increase in network capacity. Data: Arcane Research.
The number of LN users increased by 11,164% to 9.7 million in September, up from 87,000 in August. Arcane Research believes that El Salvador's example could be followed by other countries with underdeveloped banking systems or dollarised economies. If this is the case, the growth will become exponential.

"These countries have a combined population of 850 million, with 650 million of them currently without access to the banking system. In a scenario where states representing 10% of this population adopt bitcoin by 2030, we would have another 50 million LN users by the end of the decade," the report said.

Arcane Research believes this number could be even higher, as LN has the potential to revolutionise the content industry. If consumers pay for content using a micropayment network, the number of users could rise to 700 million by 2030.

"There are significant overlaps between users of services related to the consumption of different content . We decided to be conservative and choose the largest number - 1.1 billion gamers. [...] 25% of the services they use require streaming. [...] So the number of Lightning Network users would be 25% to 100% of the 1.1 billion. We took a simple approach and chose an average of around 700 million users by 2030," the report says.

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As a reminder, Glassnode analysts also calculated that Twitter and El Salvador accelerated the development of the Lightning Network.

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