Is Bitcoin's rally above $47,000 "real" - or just a bull trap?
Bitcoin has not yet managed to move beyond 48,000 dollars. Is the rally possibly just a flash in the pan?
Decline to $40k possible - but only in the short term
Bitcoin tried again tonight to rise above $48,000 - but was rejected again. Currently, the number 1 cryptocurrency by market capitalisation is trading at $47,345, up 3.5% in the last 24 hours.
Due to Bitcoin's so far persistent inability to overcome key resistance, many analysts and traders are now wondering: How real is Bitcoin's rally above $47,000? Is it just a so-called "bull trap"? In other words, is BTC going down again from here? What do analysts say about Bitcoin's short-term prospects?
The pseudonymous trader @Bleeding_Crypto currently outlines two possible scenarios for Bitcoin in the short term. He comments: September is historically a "red month" for BTC - so there have usually been sharp declines in this period so far. Based on this, he expects a drop to $43,000 or, in the worst case, to $40,000. After that, however, he predicts bitcoin will recover and rise towards $50,000.
"IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF 1 OF 2 SCENARIOS FOR A PULLBACK AND A CONTINUATION PLAYED OUT. HISTORICALLY, SEPTEMBER IS A RED MONTH SO A CONSOLIDATION AFTER THE PULLBACK WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME AND WE CAN SEE THE INDICATORS COOL DOWN AS WELL."
How it could continue after that is what crypto analyst @CryptoCX1 writes to his more than 38,000 followers. If Bitcoin manages to regain 51,000 dollars in the next few weeks, he believes a rise to around 80,000 dollars is possible - by mid-October.
$BTC With this Bear volume divergence, I would not be surprised to see 1 of 2 scenarios playout for a pullback and continuation. Historically Sept. has been a Red month so some consolidation after the pullback would not surprise me and we help cool down the indicators as well.
Bitcoin's Rise - a Dead Cat Bounce?
Is Bitcoin's rise above $47,000 sustainable at all? This is the question currently being addressed by popular on-chain analyst Will Clemente. He has studied the activity of long-term holders to find out whether Bitcoin's rally above $47,000 is just a so-called "dead cat bounce".
But what is a dead cat bounce? A dead cat bounce is a temporary, short-lived recovery in prices that follows a prolonged decline or bear market. However, after prices have briefly recovered, a continuation of the downward trend follows again. This often happens: downtrends are interrupted by small rallies, which can give the impression that the bear market is over. In this case, however, it is not. Will Bitcoin possibly suffer a similar fate? Is BTC going to fall again from here - and continue its downward trend?
Will Clemente sees no evidence of this. He says: "Investors are not currently behaving as they have in previous situations where such a dead cat bounce has occurred.
"DURING THE DEAD CAT OF 2017 [...] THERE WAS A MASSIVE SELL-OFF BY MARKET PARTICIPANTS WHO HAD NOT MOVED THEIR COINS FOR AT LEAST 6 MONTHS."
These would have sold at the first opportunity that came their way. Clemente:
"THIS BEHAVIOUR CANNOT BE OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT, WHICH SO FAR INVALIDATES THE ASSUMPTION OF A "DEAD CAT BOUNCE" FROM AN ON-CHAIN PERSPECTIVE. LONG-TERM HOLDERS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING SAFE AND HOLDING ON [TO THEIR COINS]."